Friday, May 18, 2018

Diamondbacks vs Mets

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The Arizona Diamondbacks got off to the best start in the history of the National League, but this team has really sputtered of late. They are still in first place in the division, but they enter this game having lost seven of their last eight games, with the last seven of those games being played at home. The biggest culprit of late has been an offense that has averaged just 2.00 rpg over their last eight games and that may not get a whole better in this one as they are facing Jacob deGrom, who has a 1.83 ERA on the year. Injuries have been a problem for them as they have been without Jake Lamb since April 3rd and now are without AJ Pollock, who has been their best hitter so far, but Steven Souza Jr. is hitting just .154 on the year and Paul Goldschmidt has hit just .208 with four homers and just 12 RBIs in the early going after hitting .297 with 36 homers, 120 RBIs and 117 runs scored last year. They really need him to get going. The pitching has been very solid for the D-Backs for most of the year, but even that has struggled of late as they have allowed 22 runs over their last four games after allowing just 19 total runs over their previous six games. Arizona has averaged 4.82 rpg and has allowed 3.71 rpg on the road this year.   

Taking the hill for the Diamondbacks in this one will be Zack Godley and he has gone 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in eight starts on the year, including 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in four starts on the road. In his career. He has gone 11-9 with a 3.86 ERA in 37 games (23 starts) on the road and 1-2 with a 3.02 ERA in eight starts during the month of May, while against the Mets he has gone 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four games (three starts), including 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two games (one start) here at Citi Field.

The Diamondbacks have been a rather poor offensive team in the early going as they come in ranked 27th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.95 rpg, while also ranking 30th in hitting at .220 and 19th in homers with 44. On the mound, they have been very strong so far as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in ERA at 3.31, while also ranking 3rd in WHIP at 1.16 and 8th is K’s with 395. Their bullpen ranks 1st in the league in ERA at 2.42.

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It should be said that Kai was a strikingly good looking man for his age. Despite the war he experienced as a 22 year old in the Ugandan Army fighting against the incursion by the imperialist Tanzanian President (may Yahweh spit on his grave) Julius Nyerere, he had come out relatively unscathed. The only time he encountered enemy fire was during a skirmish in the coffee fields near Hoima where his small brigade performed a quick strike and retreated into the woods toward Masindi. He had been trained as a soldier but admits to himself now that he was too afraid as a young boy.

Kai escaped to Congo after the fall of President Amin where he encountered a group of Christian missionaries. With them he learned more about the religion his father had taught him, and had come to know Jesus as well as himself. He felt ashamed of the wife and daughter he had left behind in Uganda, but he knew any attempt to go back would most certainly mean his imprisonment.

During his time with the missionaries, several trips were made to their outpost by various humanitarian groups. One day a UNICEF entourage came to the camp inviting all of the women and children to receive free vaccinations. Kai decided to see if he too would be eligible, but was met with resistance by the escort when he tried to enter the make shift tent set up by the team. While he was arguing with them, he caught a glimpse of a woman with long red hair, a freckled face, and the warmest smile he had seen in his life.

This was quite astonishing to Kai since Ugandan’s are well known for their warmth, hospitality, and big smiles, but hers seemed bigger. That night Kai could not get her face with all of it’s freckles, and glimmering smile out of his head.Now, 40 years later, that same warm freckled smile is aimed at him. His wife Joanna had asked him a question. Kai looked back at Joanna, and grinned. Of course he knew the batting average of the Mets non-pitchers was .242, a whole 18 points better than the Diamondbacks. But he countered back, their slugging percentage was almost identical with the Diamondbacks holding at .391 and the Mets at .396 amongst non-pitcher at bats.

Kai thought back to his life in Uganda before the war, and how he loved the game of baseball. He would play it with the neighbor kids in his home town of Jinja on the shore of Lake Victoria. He thought back to that young boy and decided there was no way he could have known his current favorite two players Paul Goldschmidt and Jay Bruce would be slumping through the month of May. It has gotten so bad for Bruce and Goldie that Kai wished he could help comfort them, both Bruce with his 7 for 38 and Goldschmidt on his 5 for 55 through the month of May.

He pushed on though and continued, “I’ll bet you didn’t know the Met’s team ERA+ is a whole 38 points lower than the Diamondbacks 129”. Joanna shifted in her seat and gave Kai a look of disappointment. “Kaikara Nzeogwu, you should know better than to use that Saber-tooth metrics or whatever you call them on me. I’m a purist. I care more about the Mets having a team WHIP that’s .160 higher than the Diamondbacks. That’s all I need to hear to know they can’t pitch themselves out of a paper bag”.

This caused Kai to stop for a moment and think of the most relevant stat he could tell her. Unfortunately all he could think of was FIP with would have probably been to Sabre-Metricish for his wife, so he dare not share the fact that the Mets were at 4.19 and the DBacks were at 3.73. So instead he went back to tradition and said, “Well clearly the Diamondbacks are superior at pitching if you look at their ERA of 3.31. The Mets are all the way up at 4.30”! Joanna seemed satisfied with this statistic.

A little time passed in the game they were attending, when manager Mickey Callaway went out to pull his best reliever Seth Lugo who had an ERA of 2.13 and had left 87.3% of runners on base. A question came to Kai’s mind. With no left-handers in the Mets bullpen, who was Mickey going to put in? It was too early in the game to insert closer Jeurys Familia with his 3.14 strikeout to walk ratio. With Hansel Robles on the 10-day DL and Matt Harvey now pitching for the Reds, he could only imagine it would be AJ Ramos coming in to face Christian Walker who had just been called up from the Reno Aces after AJ Pollock had been put on the 10 day disabled list with a left thumb fracture.

“Too bad too” thought Kai to himself. “AJ was having another All-Star year”.

Joanna seemed to also notice this was a bit unexpected for their best reliever to be pulled but was sure it didn’t matter much. The Met’s hadn’t used up too many relievers during the game 1 matchup of Zack Godley against Jacob deGrom. Zack had a good game considering his 4.08 coming into the game. Zack had been struggling with his command, but had found a way to get more swinging strikes against the impatient Mets hitters with his devastating curveball. She noted also that deGrom had pitched outstanding in that first game and lived up to his 1.83 ERA. That 94 mph average fastball is up this year compared to his 92 mph career average. She pondered to herself if there was some substance helping him out in that arena.

Kai interrupted Joanna’s train of thought. “I can’t believe we’re watching this Greinke and Syndergaard matchup in game 3. I mean, these two are having great years this year but I think Greinke is really vulnerable when he’s away from home. That .324/.342/.549 opponent slash line in away games is going to cost him the Cy Young this year.”

“Well yes dear, but the weather isn’t very nice. It is hot, raining, and there are thunderstorms in the area”! Joanna replied. This seemed to sour the mood a bit between them. Kai was particularly upset because game 2 was postponed due to rain, and game one took several extra hours after rain delays to get in. He wasn’t going to be able to recoup his money from the tickets he had bought on Saturday. He was sure that the matchup between Patrick Corbin and Steven Matz was going to be the pivotal game of the series. Patrick's devastating slider was buckling knees while Steven Matz’s change-up was getting much more swing and misses when complimented with his sinker. He was sure the 2.53 ERA Corbin was going to beat Matz’s 3.86 though.